By the time I finish writing this, Huckabee will probably have announced his decision already, but I couldn't let the most recent FiveThirtyEight pass by without comment.
Mr Silver is apparently attempting to divine who benefits the most in the event that Mr Huckabee keeps his hat firmly on his head. He breaks down Mr Huckabee's appeal pretty well (SoCon, evangelical, Southerner, "outsider", runs well in Iowa, works for Fox News-- though he forgot "guitar BAMF" [I'm very partial to bassists] and "jowly as all hell"), but when he starts evaluating everyone else I started to get confused.
|This may be adorable|
|but he ain't got nothin' on Thad.|
|As if I needed more reasons to hate Rachel Maddow.|
1. He seems to be reducing social conservatism to a vaguely traditionalist stance on marriage. If this is the metric, everyone but Ron and Gary is a strong social conservative! What about abortion and the drug war (which doesn't have to be a social issue, but would likely be spun as one if anyone came out firmly against it, Johnson's best efforts to sell it as a budget problem aside)? Gun rights? Prostitution? Sin taxes? The death tax (which Gingrich seems to be spinning as a social issue, which I think is kinda cool)?
2. I just want to register my immense frustration with the level of attention Herman Cain and Donald Trump have been getting by serious pundits while Gary Johnson and Ron Paul continue to be almost completely ignored. Really? Really? I can't even deal with you people.
3. Silver counts Daniels as an "evangelical Protestant". He's a Presbyterian-- you know, a descendant of Calvinism? Maybe I don't know enough Presbyterians, but Huckabee/Bachmann/Palin types they ain't.
4. He also counts Gingrich as an "outsider". In fact, the only people he doesn't list as "outsiders" are Romney and Huntsman. I'm sorry, but if Newt is an outsider, the inside must be somewhere literally up Reince Priebus's ass.
5. I get why people keep talking about Daniels-- they want him to run. Why are we still talking about Bachmann? Can we stop now? Please?
So, it's 8:07pm and Huck still hasn't announced. I've got my fingers crossed it's a big fat no-- here's hoping!